{"id":190,"date":"2005-05-06T00:00:52","date_gmt":"2005-05-06T00:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hasansaygin.com\/tr\/Hs\/?p=190"},"modified":"2020-11-06T07:52:54","modified_gmt":"2020-11-06T07:52:54","slug":"190-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hasansaygin.com\/tr\/190-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Enerji ve Geopolitika"},"content":{"rendered":"

Politik ve ekonomik sistemdeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda son derece b\u00fcy\u00fck etkileri s\u00f6z konusudur. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Rusya ve Hazar Denizi B\u00f6lgesindeki petrol ve do\u011fal gaz potansiyeli uzun s\u00fcre D\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in tam olarak eri\u015filebilir olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ve Do\u011fu Bloku \u00dclkelerinde meydana gelen ekonomik ve politik de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ve 1989 da Berlin Duvar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131yla meydana gelen de\u011fi\u015fimin en \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan birisi, uluslaras\u0131 serbest Pazar sistemi i\u00e7in daha fazla enerji kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n eri\u015filebilir hale gelmesidir. \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 sistemi dramatik olarak etkileyen di\u011fer bir \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimdir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en zengin petrol ve do\u011fal gaz yataklar\u0131na sahip \u00fclkelerden birisi olan Rusya i\u00e7in bu durum ekonomik ve politik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131ran en \u00f6nemli unsurlardan birisi haline gelmi\u015ftir. 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol krizinin ard\u0131ndan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli\u201d \u00fclkelerden sa\u011flanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik aray\u0131\u015flar, Orta Do\u011fu \u00dclkelerindeki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k nedeniyle Suudi Arabistandan sonra D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u00fcreticisi olan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Rusya ekonomisi petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ihracat\u0131na \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale gelirken, fosil yak\u0131tl\u0131 enerji kaynaklar\u0131na sahip olmayan Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin yan\u0131s\u0131ra \u00c7in ve Japonya gibi Asya \u00dclkeleri i\u00e7inde enerjide Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011finin sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik risklerin idaresi i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 en \u00f6nemli unsurdur. \u00c7e\u015fitlilik, yak\u0131t tiplerinin (enerji kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n), yak\u0131t kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n (arz\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u00fclke ve \u015firketlerin), teknoloji tiplerinin ve teknoloji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmesini kapsayan geni\u015f bir kavramd\u0131r. Petrolde orijinin veya arz\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u00fclkelerin \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmesine y\u00f6nelik politikalar son 20 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015fletilmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Petrol iletimini sa\u011flayan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fclkelerinden biri olarak \u00fclkelerin ve enerji hatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmesinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131ndaki mevcut ve potansiyel rol\u00fc ile T\u00fcrkiye de k\u00fcresel enerji pazar\u0131 i\u00e7in Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki en \u00f6nemli devlet akt\u00f6rlerden biri haline gelmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye D\u00fcnyan\u0131n do\u011fal gaz rezervlerinin y\u00fczde 71,8\u2019ine ve petrol rezervlerinin y\u00fczde 72,8\u2019ine sahip olan bir b\u00f6lgenin \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkelesi ile olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n bir konumdad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, Hazar, ortado\u011fu ve Rusya\u2019da bulunan petrol ve do\u011fal gaz i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli bir enerji ula\u015ft\u0131rma yoludur. Bu enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n orjininden AB piyasas\u0131na aktar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde AB i\u00e7in kayg\u0131 uyand\u0131racak d\u00fczeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f bulunan Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme yoluyla dengelenerek arz\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda rekabetin sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlarla petrol ve do\u011fal gaz temini konular\u0131ndaki potansiyeli, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Avrupa Birli\u011fi nezdindeki stratejik \u00f6nemini artt\u0131ran en \u00f6nemli unsurlardan biri haline gelmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye bu potansiyelini de\u011ferlendirerek hem kendi enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fine hem de ekonomisine katk\u0131da bulunacak strateji ve politikalar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir. Ancak acaba bu \u00e7abalar yeterli d\u00fczeyde ve nitelikte midir?<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu do\u011frultudaki \u00e7abalardan birini olu\u015fturan Bak\u00fc-Tiflis-Ceyhan petrol boru hatt\u0131 T\u00fcrkiyenin enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yeterlili\u011finin de\u011ferlendirilmesinde \u00f6nemli \u00f6rneklerden biri olarak ele al\u0131nabilir. Hazar b\u00f6lgesi petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn D\u00fcnya pazar\u0131na aktar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak olan BTC boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ku\u015fkusuz \u00f6nemli ve do\u011fru bir ad\u0131md\u0131r. Ancak enerji alan\u0131nda yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f dinamiklerin yan\u0131s\u0131ra jeopolitik unsurlar\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak dikkatle belirlenen dinamik (proaktif?) d\u0131\u015f politikalar ile desteklenmesinin gereklili\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00e7abalar\u0131 kadar, d\u0131\u015f ticaret gelirinin % 55\u2019ini petrol ihracat\u0131ndan sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Nitekim BTC petrol boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015faas\u0131 tamamlanmadan Rusya bu hatt\u0131 at\u0131l hale getirerek saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak ince politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye koymak i\u00e7in \u00e7oktan harekete ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 takip eden s\u00fcre\u00e7te Hazar B\u00f6lgesindeki do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n y\u00f6netimi ve uluslaras\u0131 pazara hangi yollarla ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin hususlar g\u00fcndemde \u00f6nemli bir yer i\u015fgal etmi\u015ftir. Azerbeycan petrollerin ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli se\u00e7eneklerden biri olan Bak\u00fc-Tiflis Ceyhan boru hatt\u0131 nedeniyle, bu hususta Rusya ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda ciddi rekabet do\u011fmu\u015ftur. T\u00fcrkiye ve Azerbeycan\u2019\u0131n Azerbeycan petrollerini ta\u015f\u0131cacak ana ihra\u00e7 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n BTC boru hatt\u0131 olmas\u0131 hususunda verdikleri m\u00fccedeleye kar\u015f\u0131n Rusya\u2019da bu hatt\u0131n Bak\u00fc-Novorossiysk hatt\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7aba sarf etmi\u015ftir ve sarfetmektedir. Rusya ve Kazakistan petrolleri olmaks\u0131z\u0131n Azerbeycan petrolleri ile BTC boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n kapasitesinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bile doldurulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda olan Rusya Kazakistan\u2019\u0131 BTC boru hatt\u0131na petrol sevkiyat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fmalardan uzak tutmak ve Rus transit g\u00fczergah\u0131n\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in geni\u015f lobi faaliyetlerinin yan\u0131s\u0131ra \u00f6nemli maddi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirerek siyasi \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, \u0130ran\u2019la yeniden i\u015fbirli\u011fine girerek Rusya ve Kazakistandan petrol sat\u0131n al\u0131p rafine edece\u011fi ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u00f6rfez terminalinden ayn\u0131 miktarda ham petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fi takas anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmi\u015ftir. Ancak, Kazakistan\u2019\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya ra\u011fmen Hazar denizi alt\u0131ndan Aktau-Bak\u00fc aras\u0131na d\u00f6\u015fenecek yeni bir boru hatt\u0131yla BTC boru hatt\u0131na 7.5 milyon ton petrol\u00fcn aktar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusunda Azerbaycan ile anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131ndaki siyasi anla\u015fan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan transit anla\u015fmas\u0131nda en yak\u0131n zamanda imzalanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bildirilmesi y\u00fcreklere su serpmi\u015ftir. Ancak, bu durum bu yar\u0131\u015fta geri kalmamak i\u00e7in sadece teknik ko\u015fullar\u0131 sa\u011flaman\u0131n yeterli ve belirleyici olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik ko\u015fullar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulduran ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 strateji ve proaktif siyasi politikalarla desteklenmesinin zorunlulu\u011funu g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir \u00f6rnektir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeopolitik olaylar petrol ve do\u011fal gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki geli\u015fmeleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilemektedir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ka\u00e7 on y\u0131l i\u00e7in petrol ve do\u011fal gaz\u0131n D\u00fcnyan\u0131n enerji kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli yeri i\u015fgal etmeye devam edece\u011fi bilinmektedir. Bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7in yery\u00fcz\u00fcndeki petrol ve do\u011fal gaz rezervleri yeterli oldu\u011fundan kaynak problemi bulunmamakla birlikte kaynaklar\u0131n ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin problemler s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Bu ba\u011flamda, son y\u0131llarda t\u00fcketici \u00fclke h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinde enerji arz\u0131 g\u00fcvenli\u011fine \u00fcretici \u00fclke h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinde ise enerjine talebi ili\u015fkin ciddi kayg\u0131lar\u0131n do\u011fdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Her iki taraf aras\u0131nda bu ba\u011flamda bir \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fdu\u011fu ve bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n taraflar\u0131 zedelemeden \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f ve demokratik topluma yak\u0131\u015fan optimum bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in uygulanacak stratejilerin ve politikalar\u0131n hassasiyetle ve dikkatle belirlenmesi gerekti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortadad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

H. SAYGIN<\/span><\/strong>, \u201cENERJ\u0130POL\u0130T\u0130K<\/span><\/strong>: Enerji<\/span> <\/strong>ve Geopolitik\u201d, Enerji, Y\u0131l: 10, Say\u0131: 5, Sayfa: 25 (May\u0131s 2005<\/span><\/strong>).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Politik ve ekonomik sistemdeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda son derece b\u00fcy\u00fck etkileri s\u00f6z konusudur. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Rusya ve Hazar Denizi B\u00f6lgesindeki petrol ve do\u011fal gaz potansiyeli uzun s\u00fcre D\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in tam olarak eri\u015filebilir olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ve Do\u011fu Bloku \u00dclkelerinde meydana gelen ekonomik ve politik de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ve 1989 da Berlin Duvar\u0131n\u0131n … <\/p>\n

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